Earth's Average Temperature for 2025-29 May Exceed 1.5°C Limit: WMO

Earth's Average Temperature for 2025-29 is projected to exceed the critical 1.5°C limit, as per the WMO. This significant forecast matters for UPSC aspirants, particularly for GS Paper 3, as it underscores the urgency for updated climate policies. Last Updated: 2025-05-29

Key Facts About Earth's Average Temperature for 2025-29

• The WMO forecasts global average temperatures from 2025-2029 to be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels.
• There is a 70% chance temperatures will exceed the 1.5°C threshold.
• An 86% chance exists for at least one year to temporarily surpass 1.5°C.
• One of these years could be hotter than 2024, the warmest year recorded.
• South Asia is expected to be wetter than average, while the Amazon may experience drier conditions.
• The Arctic is projected to warm by 2.4°C above normal.
• 2024 marked the first full year above the 1.5°C limit.
• A long-term exceedance of 20–30 years would signify failure of the Paris Agreement.
• 180 of 195 UNFCCC countries have not submitted updated NDCs for 2031–2035.
• The WMO is an intergovernmental body with 192 member states, evolving from the International Meteorological Organization founded in 1873.

Global Climate Challenges and India's Role

The potential exceedance of the 1.5°C limit highlights a critical juncture in global climate policy, emphasizing the need for immediate action to meet international commitments. For India, aligning with the Paris Agreement is crucial to achieving sustainable development goals and mitigating severe weather impacts. As a rapidly developing nation, India's strategies in renewable energy and climate resilience are pivotal in global climate rankings and international comparisons.

Related Government Schemes/Policies

• National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC): India's strategy to address climate change through eight missions.
• International Solar Alliance (ISA): Aims to promote solar energy and reduce dependence on fossil fuels.
• Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs): Commitments to reduce emissions and adapt to climate impacts.

UPSC Relevance

• GS Paper 1: Geography - Climate Change and its impacts.
• GS Paper 2: International Relations - Global climate agreements and India's role.
• GS Paper 3: Environment - Climate change mitigation strategies.
• Prelims: Questions on WMO, temperature thresholds, and international climate agreements.
• Mains: Essays on climate change policy, India's renewable energy initiatives.

FAQ Section

• What is the significance of the 1.5°C limit? The 1.5°C limit is a critical threshold set by the Paris Agreement to prevent severe climate impacts. Exceeding it could lead to catastrophic environmental changes.
• Why is Earth's temperature projection important? The projection indicates the urgency for global climate action to prevent surpassing the 1.5°C limit, which could have dire consequences for ecosystems and human life.
• What are the key features of the WMO's forecast? The forecast includes a 70% chance of exceeding the 1.5°C limit, with specific regional impacts like wetter conditions in South Asia and a 2.4°C increase in the Arctic.